THE UN has learnt from the lessons of the past and is following a far more cautious, unhurried approach in seeking a Cyprus settlement through proximity talks, foreign diplomatic sources say.
“The negotiating team — the UN, the US and Britain — studied what didn’t work before and tried to avoid some of those pitfalls. Talks mediator Alvaro de Soto is not going to be rushed,” a foreign diplomat told the Cyprus Mail.
The feeling among diplomats is that past peace talks broke down because President Glafcos Clerides and Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash were made to sit across the table from each other before they were ready.
The UN now appears to have found the right man to orchestrate this new softly-softly approach. “De Soto is unflappable about this it seems. He does not want to rush it because the talks fell apart before by rushing it, he is going to wait till he has hit a point where he believes he can move to something besides proximity talks,” the diplomat said, suggesting the next step would be “something between” indirect and direct negotiations.
The talks procedure, currently in its fifth round in Geneva, is an example of the step-by-step approach to solving thorny political problems often favoured by international mediators, with one difference. Normally, lower level officials from the two sides would spend a few months ironing out lesser differences, leaving only the tougher issues for the big guns.
“In Cyprus, that does not happen because Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots do not speak on a working level…so the only level we can talk at is between Clerides and Denktash and with their staffs,” the diplomat said. “It is clumsy, but the procedure can still can get us to the next step.”
De Soto’s modus operandi for the talks is by now well known. “He is taking what they say, putting it back to them, they react, he goes back again,” is how the diplomat describes it. The whole thing is done with unofficial non- papers, to avoid either side blowing up over proposals it deems unacceptable.
The sides are bombarded with one revised paper after another until they are comfortable with the contents of the documents before them. The aim is to arrive at some form of agreement on the four key issues: the constitution, security, territory and property and refugees.
“The purpouse of the exercise is to draft a legally binding text of a comprehensive settlement, covering all aspects and issues, to which the two sides will say ‘yes, I can live with that, even though it might be difficult to sell it’,” another foreign diplomat told the Cyprus News Agency (CNA) in Geneva.
Diplomats believe Clerides and Denktash have the standing within their own communities to get a settlement accepted, even though it is unlikely to meet each side’s aspirations in full. Greek Cypriot parties may fear “deviations” from UN resolutions during the talks, but diplomats are unanimous in insisting the sought-after settlement is a bi-zonal, bicommunal federation, as set out in Security Council resolutions.
With the positions of the two sides so well known and well documented, what hope is there of the current talks process breaking the deadlock? According to diplomats, things have changed enough since the last talks collapsed — in 1997 — that it is well worth going over the same ground again.
“Things have changed in the region, the atmosphere is different, which makes it necessary and worthwhile going over things again,” one diplomat said. The key new factors are Greco-Turkish rapprochement and Turkey’s newfound EU candidacy status. “Turkey’s candidacy changes everything, it offers new possibilities.
It gives a reason why Turkey might want a Cyprus settlement,” the diplomat told the Cyprus Mail. “The Turkish Cypriot side has to understand that Turkey is moving closer to Europe and is therefore unlikely to put up for too long with Turkish Cypriot positions it considers unhelpful to its accession course,” another diplomat told CNA.
This same change of “atmosphere” is what makes diplomats cautiously optimistic about actually achieving a settlement. The talks are now delving into core issues and the UN is expected to present some, as yet undefined, form of “comprehensive proposals” towards a settlement in June, after a further round of proximity talks in late January and early February.
