By Martin Hellicar
CYPRIOTS are increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for a swift Cyprus settlement and downhearted about the economy, a nationwide survey has shown.
The Cyprus Barometer survey, whose findings were released yesterday, also shows that Cypriots are divided about the island’s EU accession prospects but are mostly convinced that entry to the 15-member block would be good news.
Concerns over crime, corruption in high places and the standing of the Church are growing, the poll suggests.
The wide-ranging survey, conducted by RAI consultants for the Popular Bank, also shows that most Cypriots do not back government plans to liberalise interest rates.
A total of 1,005 people between the ages of 18 and 75 were asked a series of questions on Cyprus and the EU, the economy and social issues in a survey conducted between November 27 and December 18 last year. Similar studies were commissioned by the bank in 1996 and 1997.
The 1998 survey reveals a clear pattern of growing pessimism about the prospects for a Cyprus settlement within the next two years. Comparing 1998 Barometer results with those of 1997 shows a significant drop in the number of people who see prospects for a solution as improved.
Almost half of those polled said the situation was stagnant, 32 per cent said prospects were better and 19 per cent said chances of a solution were reduced. In 1997, only a third saw the situation as stagnant, fully half saw prospects as improved and only 11 per cent thought chances were reduced.
Andreas Petrides, of RAI consultants, noted that the survey was completed before President Clerides announced his decision not to bring the S-300s to Cyprus. The decision to order the missiles from Russia had heightened tensions on the island, with Turkey threatening to strike the S-300s if they arrived.
On the economic front, the survey showed most people did not believe 1998 had been a good year compared to 1997. An increased number of people also believe the outlook is bleak, the study suggests.
Asked how they saw economic performance in 1998 compared to 1997, 41 per cent of those polled said things had taken a turn for the worse, 31 per cent said they saw no change and only 23 per cent believed there had been an improvement.
Only about a fifth of those questioned said their personal financial situation had improved in 1998. About a third said their personal finances had worsened while half of those polled said nothing had changed compared to the previous year.
Looking ahead to 1999, a third of respondents said things would get worse and only 19 per cent said there would be upturn.
The 1997 survey had produced far more optimistic results. Only a quarter had said prospects were bleak and almost a third saw a rosy financial future.
Another indication of growing pessimism is that three-quarters of those polled said they thought the gulf between rich and poor was set to grow in coming years. In 1997, only two thirds of those questioned felt this would be the trend.
Over half of those questioned (55 per cent) blamed “uncertainty due to the Cyprus problem” as the principal reason for the poor economic situation.
Forty-five per cent of Cypriots believe cutting the state wage bill would be a good way to reduce government spending, the poll suggests.
The survey results show Cypriots remain divided about the island’s prospects for joining the EU.
Forty-seven per cent of those questioned said accession prospects were good. Fifty-one per cent said Cyprus would have problems joining the 15- member block and half of these (25 per cent of the total) said a Cyprus settlement would be necessary before accession. A similar pattern was revealed by the 1997 survey.
Even though almost three-quarters of those questioned said not enough information was available on what EU accession would mean for Cyprus, most Cypriots (65 per cent of those polled) believe joining the EU would be beneficial.
The study also notes a shift in people’s perception of what the benefits of accession would be. In 1997, 40 per cent of those questioned said economic development would be the greatest benefit, with increased security second (garnering 27 per cent). But the 1998 study showed that security (at 36 per cent) had overtaken economic development (at 26 per cent) as the perceived greatest benefit of accession.
Cyprus began EU accession talks last March and is, according to official statements, well on course for entry.
Crime has leapfrogged drugs as the social problem causing most concern, the poll shows. In 1997, when people were asked to name the island’s biggest social malaises (excluding the Cyprus problem) 74 per cent said drugs, 60 per cent said foreign workers and 53 per cent said crime. The top three of perceived social ills was the same for 1998, but in a different order. Crime was top (on 67 per cent), drugs second (66 per cent) and foreign workers third (58 per cent).
1998 saw the resurgence of gangland killings, with four deaths.
In a year when Interior Minister Dinos Michaelides was cleared of corruption charges and the director of the Water development department, Lakis Christodoulou, jailed for abuse of authority, the survey also shows 95 per cent of people believe Cyprus faces a serious corruption problem.
The poll also indicates that 72 per cent of Cypriots believe the state fails properly to investigate and punish corrupt officials.
Over three-quarters of those polled said the Church was in crisis. The Church has had a bad year, with former Bishop Chrysanthos of Limassol suspended over alleged involvement in financial scams in Cyprus and abroad and the race to find his successor marred the Paphos Bishop’s sordid allegations against the elderly mentor of one of the candidates.
The survey also indicates poor support for government plans to liberalise interest rates. A relevant bill was tabled before the House last week. But the poll showed that 54 per cent of the population oppose interest rate liberalisation and an identical proportion believe such liberalisation would have detrimental effects.
